Modeling Spatial Distributions of Nonpoint Source Pollution Loadings in the Great Lakes Watersheds by Using the Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model

نویسندگان

  • Chansheng He
  • Carlo DeMarchi
  • Thomas E. Croley
چکیده

The NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Western Michigan University, and the University of Michigan are jointly developing a physically based, spatially-distributed hydrology model to simulate spatial and temporal nonpoint source material distributions in the Saginaw Bay watersheds, which drains into Lake Huron. Multiple databases of meteorology, land use, topography, hydrography, soils, and agricultural statistics were used to estimate nonpoint source loading potential in the study watersheds. Animal manure production was computed from tabulations of animals by zip code area for the census years of 1987, 1992, 1997, and 2002. Relative chemical loadings for agricultural land use were calculated from fertilizer and pesticide applications for the same periods. These estimates are to be used as the input to the distributed water quality model for simulating pollutant transport through surface and subsurface processes to Great Lakes waters. These simulations, once verified with the in situ Saginaw Bay water quality data, will provide important information to researchers and decision makers for developing the Total Maximum Daily Load programs to minimize the nonpoint source pollution in the watersheds. KEY TERMS: Nonpoint source pollution; Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model; Saginaw Bay Watersheds; Great Lakes. INTRODUCTION Nonpoint source pollution (pollutants from agriculture practices, contaminated sediments, urban runoff, and atmospheric deposition, etc) has been commonly regarded as the primary sources of impairments of the rivers, lakes, fisheries and wildlife, and aquatic ecosystems in the United States, Europe and other countries (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 2002; He and Croley 2006; Bouraoui and Grizzetti 2007). During the past few decades, different methods have been used to aid in the understanding and management of surface runoff, sediment, nutrient leaching, and pollutant transport. These include GIS-based procedures for risk assessment of pollutants for aquatic ecosystems (Sala and Vighi (2007), artificial neural network-based water quality models for prediction of concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria for beach advisories (He and He 2008), and statistical models for identifying highest nutrient loading areas (Bouraoui and Grizzetti 2007). A number of simulation models have also been developed to track the production and transport of both point and nonpoint source materials through a watershed by hydrological processes. Examples of the models include ANSWERS (Areal Nonpoint Source Watershed Environment Simulation, Beasley et al. 1980), AGNPS (Agricultural Nonpoint Source Pollution Model, Young et al. 1989), EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator, Sharpley and Williams 1990), HSPF (Hydrologic Simulation Program in FORTRAN, Bicknell et al. 1996), and SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, Arnold et al. 1998), to name a few. However, these models are either empirically based, or spatially lumped or semi-distributed, or do not consider nonpoint sources from animal manure and combined sewer overflows (CSOs). To meet this need, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), Western Michigan University, and University of Michigan are jointly developing a spatially distributed, physically based watershed-scale water quality model to estimate movement of materials through both point and nonpoint sources in both surface and subsurface waters to the Great Lakes watersheds (Croley and He 2005, 2006, 2008; He and Croley 2006, 2007a, b, 2008). This paper describes procedures for estimating potential loadings of animal manure and agricultural chemicals into surface water from multiple databases of land use/cover, animal production, fertilizer, and pesticide applications, and CSOs. It first gives a brief description of the distributed large basin runoff model (DLBRM) and then discusses procedures for processing and deriving loadings of animal manure and agricultural chemicals. These loading estimates are then to be used as input to the water quality model to quantify the transportation of combined nutrient loadings from animal manure and fertilizers and CSOs to storages of upper soil zone, lower soil zone, 1 Proceedings of the AWRA 2008 Spring Specialty Conference, San Matteo, California, March 17—19, 2008 (2008). 2 Respectively, Professor of Geography, Department of Geography, Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, Michigan 49008-5424, E-mail: [email protected]; Research Investigator, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, 2205 Commonwealth Blvd., Ann Arbor, MI, 48105-1593,[email protected]; Research Hydrologist, NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, 2205 Commonwealth Blvd., Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105-2945, E-mail: [email protected].

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تاریخ انتشار 2008